The Thinking 

Fertility and the Counter-Culture

October 16, 2012


JESSE POWELL writes regarding his recent report on fertility statistics in the U.S.:

In regular day-to-day life, it is easy to think that there is no opposition to feminism, that American culture is dead, that nothing good is happening. Maybe one runs across a positive indicator here or there but that is only “anecdotal” and perhaps illusory. However, my study on fertility by Census Tract offers absolute proof that “something is going on” on a national and systemic level.

The amazing thing about my findings regarding fertility level and the Married Parents Ratio and the change from 2000 to 2010 is that they prove that a cultural revival really is going on in the country and that this revival is systemic. The gap between 2000 and 2010 in terms of the Global Fertility Level at a given GFL percentile noticeably starts to shrink after the 70th percentile. This indicates that weak effects from the cultural revival are already starting to show up at the 70th percentile! The power of the cultural revival overcomes the power of decline in absolute terms at the 94.7 percentile level regarding fertility and at the 98.0 percentile level regarding Married Parents Ratio but cultural revival is occurring along a broad spectrum; it is not an isolated phenomenon only occurring at the very top.

—- Comments —-

Buck writes:

Is there a bottom line to this? That’s a lot of data. Are whites reconstituting their population and reversing the current trend toward minority status, or just maintaining? Is this evidence that suggests that we might “keep America white“?

Laura writes:

These developments are not significant enough to reverse the likelihood that whites will become a minority in the next few decades. Whites are already in the minority among newborns.

Jesse Powell writes:

Regarding my recent findings regarding fertility; it is true that the process of “cultural revival” marked by increasing fertility seemingly based on religious faith is specific to whites in America.  I put together some information on black fertility levels by Census Tract and what is going on among blacks is totally different from what is going on among whites.  Among blacks the rule is the higher the fertility level the lower the Married Parents Ratio.  Furthermore from 2000 to 2010 black fertility dropped across the entire range of Global Fertility Level dropping particularly sharply at the high end.  This is totally the opposite to whites where comparative fertility increased the higher up the fertility scale one went with absolute increases for the top 5%.  I have not done a Census Tract analysis on Hispanics but I do know that Hispanics in America are currently going through a fertility crash seemingly similar to what whites saw from 1957 (the peak of the baby boom) to 1976 (the low-point in fertility before a modest recovery followed).  The drop in fertility among Hispanics from 2007 to 2010 was similar in magnitude to the drop in white fertility from 1964 to 1967 (if I’m remembering my years right).

Below are the Total Fertility Rates by race for 2007 and 2011:

                    2007      2011        Change

White          1.908    1.778         -6.8%
Black          2.142     1.923        -10.2%
Hispanic     2.840      2.225       -21.7%
Asian          1.850      1.706       -7.8%
The total proportion of white births was 53.5% in 2007, 54.1% in 2010, and 54.4% in 2011.

As you can see from the above table the white TFR fell the least (6.8%).  Interestingly blacks are now clearly below replacement level and Hispanics are just a little bit above replacement level (a radical fall from 2.840 to 2.225 in just 4 years).

Back to the issue of religious based cultural revival it does seem reasonable to think that the reason why white fertility fell the least from 2007 to 2011 is because of the fertility boom among the white religiously devout.  Blacks are not experiencing a similar religious revival and neither are Hispanics; the religious revival going on in this country definitely seems to be specific to whites.  However, there is an interesting rise in the Married Parents Ratio at the very top of black fertility seen in the year 2010 (not seen at all in the year 2000), but I have not studied it in detail.  Regardless the magnitude of any religious revival among blacks is definitely smaller and fertility among blacks fell sharply at the high end of the fertility range from 2000 to 2010.

So, the white race in America is benefiting disproportionately and first from religious revival; this boosts white fertility (perhaps only in the sense of reducing the decrease for now) and it will also serve to improve white family functioning.  I suspect white fertility is currently in a plateau / bottoming stage that will probably last about 10 years and that 10 years from now white fertility will actually be increasing.

Israel is an interesting case study to look at.  Fertility among Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel started rising in 1955 and fertility among Israeli Jews overall plateaued / bottomed during the 1990s and started rising in 2000.  The minimum fertility of Israeli Jews was 2.6 during the 1990s and now in 2010 it is 2.9.  2010 to 2020 might be the bottoming / plateau stage of American white fertility similarly to how things happened in Israel.  The religious revival came to the Jews first but white Christianity is now showing signs of its own revival in America.

So yes, whites do have an advantage regarding fertility in America that the other races lack.  I would expect religious revival to eventually encompass all races but for now whites are first, that is what the statistics are telling me.

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