The Thinking 

An Election Forecast

November 5, 2012


TWO friends of mine who are financial analysts have been following the polls closely since last summer. They believe the polls are wildly wrong because they overestimate voter turnout among Democrats. My friends have made two predictions:

1. Romney will win in a landslide,

2. Obama will become a talk show host.

I have tried to convince them that their predictions are overly optimistic, but have not succeeded.

—– Comments —-

Kevin M. writes:

“Obama will become a talk show host.”

What do they mean by will become?

Laura writes:


Terry Morris writes:

I sincerely hope your friends are right in their projections, even though I have zero faith in Mr. Romney. Obama is such a repulsive, un-American narcissist, and Romney such a blatant RINO, that if I had the option I’d write-in Deputy Dog.

Buck writes:

This morning on the Fox News business channel, in a daily chat segment with a European market analyst, the analyst said that the European financial markets – traders and institutions – locked in their financial positions based on their expected results of the U.S. presidential election. He said that eighty percent of European money is positioned for Obama’s re-election.

Obviously, everyone is just guessing, but Europeans often have a less biased perspective on us than we get from our own. Putting your money down is significantly weightier than a risk-free prognostication.

Earl writes:

My theory is that many Democrats will tell everyone including themselves that they are voting for Obama, but when they get in their secret voting booth– somehow, someway, Mitt Romney may have been selected on their ballots. They might even continue the lie as they step out to the exit pollsters.

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