The Thinking 

By 2060, Nonwhites Will Be Almost 60 Percent of U.S.

December 29, 2012


ACCORDING to new Census projections, whites will cease to be a majority group by 2043. Nonwhites, who now compose 37 percent of the population, will more than double in number, and become 57 percent of the total, if the projections are correct.

The L.A. Times reports that the white population will decline by nearly 20.6 million from 2024 to 2060. Almost one in three U.S. residents will be Hispanic. The Times reports that the U.S. will be “more diverse” as a result.

 —- Comments —-

Joe A. writes:

All I can say is, I’m glad I won’t be around here by then. God help my kids.

Terry Morris writes:

Yes, more diverse, and proportionally less self-governing. Wonderful combination.

Jesse Powell writes:

I am very dubious about this projection by the Census Bureau that nonwhites will be 60 percent of the United States population by 2060. That is almost 50 years away and a lot can happen in 50 years. I am sure the Census Bureau is projecting “current trends” to make this estimate. The problem is that “current trends” regarding fertility and especially fertility by racial group will not hold steady for the next 50 years because American culture itself will not be stable for the next 50 years. Cultural change in the feminist direction is what caused the fertility crash and cultural change in a patriarchal direction in the future is what will cause a fertility revival as well as a cultural revival overall.

There has already been an increase in the absolute proportion of white women having five or more children from 1995 to 2010; this increase that started no later than 1995 broke a steady downward trend in this fertility indicator that had been continuous from 1920 until 1995. Furthermore a subset of the white population, Ultra-Orthodox Jews, has seen a complete “reverse transition” in their fertility from 1955 to today. In other words the fertility decline seen throughout the Western world since 1960, the so called “fertility transition,” has completely reversed among Ultra-Orthodox Jews such that the fertility rate of Ultra-Orthodox Jews is now as high as it ever was or higher. According to an academic paper titled “Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel” among Ashkenazi Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel who married before 1955 the total average fertility rate over their lifetime was 2.76 but for the same group of women who married between 1970 and 1980 their average fertility rate was 5.88. I have read from other sources that the average fertility rate for Ultra-Orthodox women today in Israel is 6.7.

It is not only within Judaism that high fertility is being promoted. It is also common for conservative Christian churches advocating Complementarianism or Patriarchy to promote large families. One thing that should be remembered when thinking about the Ultra-Orthodox is that Judaism overall has a very high level of liberalism and atheism (among those ethnically Jewish) and yet a strong religious revival is happening among the Jews; among the Ultra-Orthodox Jews. I think these two facts are related; that the reason why there is such a strong religious revival is precisely because of the high liberalism and atheism among Jews creating the fuel for a religious backlash and religious revival. The broader point is that liberalism and atheism are growing in America at large among the historically Christian population indicating to me that a strong Christian religious revival similar to what is already happening among Ultra-Orthodox Jews is in America’s future. Such a Christian revival is likely to substantially increase the white birth rate nationwide.

In making population projections 50 years into the future things like religious revival need to be taken into account. Since 2007 there has been a major fertility drop in America presumably due to the economic crisis; the proportion of white births however increased from 53.5 percent in 2007 to 54.4 percent in 2011 due to white fertility dropping less than the fertility decline among the other racial groups. This could be an early sign of religious revival influence boosting the white fertility rate as compared to the other races where religious revival is weaker or absent.

Laura writes:

These projections are worthwhile as a look at what will exist if current trends continue. Mr. Powell is right that there are very unpredictable factors in estimating fertility over that long of a period. However, the phenomena of large, non-Jewish families that Mr. Powell mentions is extremely small. For this to become widespread in the next 30 years or so would be a remarkable development.

R. J. writes:

I am no Pollyana about the demographic trends, but here are a few future possibilities that could skew the Census projections in a more favorable direction:

a) Census may assume a continuation of the white birth rate over the next fifty years. This would be an error: If liberal whites are the ones who are not reproducing, their share of the white population will fall. As their share of the white population slides, the white birth rate will rise assuming that nothing else changes. Simple math.

b) Our standard of living is in long term decline for a variety of reasons: global wage arbitrage, adverse demographics and resource depletion, to name a few. This will change the outlook in several ways that the Census may not capture:

1. Fewer people will want to come here because there will be fewer opportunities to enjoy a decent standard of living. A lower rate of immigration will push the Census projections further out into the future.

2. Americans will resist immigration even more, due to a fear of a shrinking pie.

3. Social unrest will increase, making us a less attractive destination.

Kevin M. writes:

R.J. writes: “If liberal whites are the ones who are not reproducing, their share of the white population will fall.”

In a vacuum that would be true. But what happens when Mr. and Mrs. Conservative, with a two-person income and unable to homeschool, make the mistake of shipping little Todd and Kathleen off to the public indoctrination system? Their two kids get 16 years of left-wing spew. Frankly, I suspect most young people embrace left politics because that’s what they have fed on all day, school day after school day. Mr. and Mrs. Conservative only have two kids to raise; their kids’ teachers have a class of 22 kids to indoctrinate, and they have a funded school system to support their efforts.

Math, indeed.

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